{"id":172,"date":"2026-05-21T01:17:58","date_gmt":"2026-05-21T04:17:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/adversos.com.br\/?page_id=172"},"modified":"2026-05-21T01:17:58","modified_gmt":"2026-05-21T04:17:58","slug":"radar","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/adversos.com.br\/?page_id=172","title":{"rendered":"Radar de Riscos"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"adv-radar-lista\" style=\"max-width:800px;margin:0 auto\"><style>\n.adv-radar-card{background:#fff;border-radius:14px;border:1px solid #D8E4E7;margin-bottom:12px;transition:.2s;overflow:hidden}\n.adv-radar-card:hover{box-shadow:0 4px 20px rgba(9,46,54,.08)}\n.adv-radar-header{padding:20px 24px}\n.adv-radar-card.open .adv-radar-chevron{transform:rotate(180deg)}\n@media(max-width:768px){\n  .adv-radar-header{padding:16px}\n  .adv-radar-body{padding:0 16px 16px !important}\n}\n<\/style><div style=\"margin-bottom:24px;padding:20px 24px;background:#F7FAFA;border-radius:14px;border:1px solid #D8E4E7\"><h2 style=\"font-size:1.3rem;font-weight:800;color:#0A1F26;margin:0 0 8px\">Radar de Riscos \u2014 An\u00e1lises P\u00fablicas<\/h2><p style=\"font-size:14px;color:#607880;line-height:1.65;margin:0\">A Adversos analisa riscos que podem afetar neg\u00f3cios do com\u00e9rcio local. Cada boletim avalia um cen\u00e1rio espec\u00edfico usando uma metodologia propriet\u00e1ria que considera m\u00faltiplas dimens\u00f5es de risco. O <strong>MSRP<\/strong> \u00e9 o score geral \u2014 de 0 a 100, quanto mais alto, mais aten\u00e7\u00e3o o cen\u00e1rio exige. Clique num boletim pra ver os detalhes.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"adv-radar-card\" id=\"adv-radar-0\"><div class=\"adv-radar-header\" onclick=\"advRadarToggle('adv-radar-0')\" style=\"cursor:pointer\"><div style=\"display:flex;align-items:center;gap:14px\"><div style=\"flex:1;min-width:0\"><div style=\"font-size:10px;font-weight:700;text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:1.5px;color:#16828C;margin-bottom:2px\">Regional<\/div><h3 style=\"font-size:1rem;font-weight:800;color:#0A1F26;margin:0;line-height:1.3\">El Ni\u00f1o Extremo 2026-2027<\/h3><div style=\"font-size:11px;color:#94A8AF;margin-top:3px\">MG \u00b7 At\u00e9 25 mil habitantes<\/div><\/div><div style=\"text-align:center;min-width:60px;flex-shrink:0\"><div style=\"font-size:1.4rem;font-weight:900;color:#49B0B2\">27,2<\/div><div style=\"font-size:8px;font-weight:700;text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:.5px;color:#49B0B2\">Baixo<\/div><\/div><div class=\"adv-radar-chevron\" style=\"font-size:18px;color:#94A8AF;transition:transform .2s\">\u25bc<\/div><\/div><div style=\"display:flex;gap:8px;margin-top:10px\"><div style=\"flex:1\"><div style=\"display:flex;justify-content:space-between;font-size:9px;color:#94A8AF;margin-bottom:2px\"><span>E<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\">67<\/span><\/div><div style=\"height:4px;background:#E8EEF0;border-radius:2px;overflow:hidden\"><div style=\"width:66.9%;height:100%;background:#0E5564;border-radius:2px\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><div style=\"flex:1\"><div style=\"display:flex;justify-content:space-between;font-size:9px;color:#94A8AF;margin-bottom:2px\"><span>S<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\">55<\/span><\/div><div style=\"height:4px;background:#E8EEF0;border-radius:2px;overflow:hidden\"><div style=\"width:55%;height:100%;background:#16828C;border-radius:2px\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><div style=\"flex:1\"><div style=\"display:flex;justify-content:space-between;font-size:9px;color:#94A8AF;margin-bottom:2px\"><span>V<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700\">68<\/span><\/div><div style=\"height:4px;background:#E8EEF0;border-radius:2px;overflow:hidden\"><div style=\"width:68.1%;height:100%;background:#92400E;border-radius:2px\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div style=\"font-size:10px;color:#94A8AF;margin-top:8px\">8 riscos \u00b7 15\/09\/2026 \u00b7 v1<\/div><\/div><div class=\"adv-radar-body\" style=\"display:none;padding:0 24px 24px;border-top:1px solid #E8EEF0;margin-top:14px;padding-top:18px\"><div style=\"font-size:12.5px;color:#607880;line-height:1.65;margin-bottom:16px;padding:12px 14px;background:#F7FAFA;border-radius:10px;border:1px solid #D8E4E7\"><div style=\"font-size:10px;font-weight:700;text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:1px;color:#0E5564;margin-bottom:4px\">Sobre a metodologia (v1)<\/div>Cada risco \u00e9 avaliado em tr\u00eas perspectivas. Primeiro, olhamos pra fora: o quanto o cen\u00e1rio externo cria condi\u00e7\u00f5es favor\u00e1veis pra que esse risco exista na regi\u00e3o analisada. Depois, olhamos pra rela\u00e7\u00e3o entre o evento e o risco: se existe um caminho real pra que ele se concretize aqui. Por \u00faltimo, olhamos pra dentro da unidade analisada: o quanto ela est\u00e1 preparada \u2014 ou n\u00e3o \u2014 pra absorver o impacto. Quando as tr\u00eas perspectivas apontam pra cima, o score sobe. Quando qualquer uma delas \u00e9 baixa, o score cai \u2014 porque basta uma camada fraca pra reduzir o risco real. O resultado \u00e9 um n\u00famero de 0 a 100 que indica o quanto as condi\u00e7\u00f5es favorecem aquele risco, n\u00e3o uma previs\u00e3o de que ele vai acontecer.<\/div><div style=\"margin-bottom:16px\"><div style=\"font-size:10.5px;font-weight:700;text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:1px;color:#94A8AF;margin-bottom:10px\">Camadas de risco<\/div><div style=\"margin-bottom:8px\"><div style=\"display:flex;justify-content:space-between;font-size:11px;color:#607880;margin-bottom:3px\"><span>Exposi\u00e7\u00e3o \u2014 olhe para fora da unidade<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700;color:#2C3E44\">66,9<span style=\"font-size:9px;color:#9ca3af\">\/100<\/span><\/span><\/div><div style=\"height:6px;background:#E8EEF0;border-radius:3px;overflow:hidden\"><div style=\"width:66.9%;height:100%;background:#0E5564;border-radius:3px;transition:width .4s\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><div style=\"margin-bottom:8px\"><div style=\"display:flex;justify-content:space-between;font-size:11px;color:#607880;margin-bottom:3px\"><span>Suscetibilidade \u2014 olhe para a rela\u00e7\u00e3o entre evento e risco<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700;color:#2C3E44\">55,0<span style=\"font-size:9px;color:#9ca3af\">\/100<\/span><\/span><\/div><div style=\"height:6px;background:#E8EEF0;border-radius:3px;overflow:hidden\"><div style=\"width:55%;height:100%;background:#16828C;border-radius:3px;transition:width .4s\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><div style=\"margin-bottom:8px\"><div style=\"display:flex;justify-content:space-between;font-size:11px;color:#607880;margin-bottom:3px\"><span>Vulnerabilidade \u2014 olhe para dentro da unidade<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700;color:#2C3E44\">68,1<span style=\"font-size:9px;color:#9ca3af\">\/100<\/span><\/span><\/div><div style=\"height:6px;background:#E8EEF0;border-radius:3px;overflow:hidden\"><div style=\"width:68.1%;height:100%;background:#92400E;border-radius:3px;transition:width .4s\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div style=\"margin-bottom:16px\"><div style=\"font-size:10.5px;font-weight:700;text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:1px;color:#94A8AF;margin-bottom:10px\">Categorias de risco<\/div><div style=\"margin-bottom:8px\"><div style=\"display:flex;justify-content:space-between;font-size:11px;color:#607880;margin-bottom:3px\"><span>Riscos de mercado<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700;color:#2C3E44\">33,5<span style=\"font-size:9px;color:#9ca3af\">\/100<\/span><\/span><\/div><div style=\"height:6px;background:#E8EEF0;border-radius:3px;overflow:hidden\"><div style=\"width:33.5%;height:100%;background:#E6A817;border-radius:3px;transition:width .4s\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><div style=\"margin-bottom:8px\"><div style=\"display:flex;justify-content:space-between;font-size:11px;color:#607880;margin-bottom:3px\"><span>Riscos competitivos<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700;color:#2C3E44\">25,5<span style=\"font-size:9px;color:#9ca3af\">\/100<\/span><\/span><\/div><div style=\"height:6px;background:#E8EEF0;border-radius:3px;overflow:hidden\"><div style=\"width:25.5%;height:100%;background:#16828C;border-radius:3px;transition:width .4s\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><div style=\"margin-bottom:8px\"><div style=\"display:flex;justify-content:space-between;font-size:11px;color:#607880;margin-bottom:3px\"><span>Riscos econ\u00f4micos<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700;color:#2C3E44\">16,2<span style=\"font-size:9px;color:#9ca3af\">\/100<\/span><\/span><\/div><div style=\"height:6px;background:#E8EEF0;border-radius:3px;overflow:hidden\"><div style=\"width:16.2%;height:100%;background:#16828C;border-radius:3px;transition:width .4s\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><div style=\"margin-bottom:8px\"><div style=\"display:flex;justify-content:space-between;font-size:11px;color:#607880;margin-bottom:3px\"><span>Riscos de fornecedores e cadeia externa<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700;color:#2C3E44\">14,2<span style=\"font-size:9px;color:#9ca3af\">\/100<\/span><\/span><\/div><div style=\"height:6px;background:#E8EEF0;border-radius:3px;overflow:hidden\"><div style=\"width:14.2%;height:100%;background:#16828C;border-radius:3px;transition:width .4s\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><div style=\"margin-bottom:8px\"><div style=\"display:flex;justify-content:space-between;font-size:11px;color:#607880;margin-bottom:3px\"><span>Riscos clim\u00e1ticos e ambientais<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700;color:#2C3E44\">67,6<span style=\"font-size:9px;color:#9ca3af\">\/100<\/span><\/span><\/div><div style=\"height:6px;background:#E8EEF0;border-radius:3px;overflow:hidden\"><div style=\"width:67.6%;height:100%;background:#D04A3E;border-radius:3px;transition:width .4s\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><div style=\"margin-bottom:8px\"><div style=\"display:flex;justify-content:space-between;font-size:11px;color:#607880;margin-bottom:3px\"><span>Riscos setoriais<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700;color:#2C3E44\">12,6<span style=\"font-size:9px;color:#9ca3af\">\/100<\/span><\/span><\/div><div style=\"height:6px;background:#E8EEF0;border-radius:3px;overflow:hidden\"><div style=\"width:12.6%;height:100%;background:#16828C;border-radius:3px;transition:width .4s\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><div style=\"margin-bottom:8px\"><div style=\"display:flex;justify-content:space-between;font-size:11px;color:#607880;margin-bottom:3px\"><span>Riscos de infraestrutura p\u00fablica<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:700;color:#2C3E44\">21,1<span style=\"font-size:9px;color:#9ca3af\">\/100<\/span><\/span><\/div><div style=\"height:6px;background:#E8EEF0;border-radius:3px;overflow:hidden\"><div style=\"width:21.1%;height:100%;background:#16828C;border-radius:3px;transition:width .4s\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div style=\"padding:12px 14px;background:#F7FAFA;border-radius:10px;border-left:3px solid #16828C;font-size:12.5px;color:#2C3E44;line-height:1.65\"><div style=\"font-size:10px;font-weight:700;text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:1px;color:#16828C;margin-bottom:4px\">Parecer<\/div>Este parecer \u00e9 datado de 22\/05\/2026 e pode ser atualizado. O cen\u00e1rio analisado indica exposi\u00e7\u00e3o relevante do varejo presencial de bens e servi\u00e7os em cidades de Minas Gerais com at\u00e9 25 mil habitantes aos efeitos do El Ni\u00f1o Extremo 2026-2027. Apesar disso, os riscos avaliados apresentaram comportamento heterog\u00eaneo: a maior parte mostrou potencial muito baixo ou baixo de manifesta\u00e7\u00e3o durante a janela analisada, sem indicar um cen\u00e1rio de impacto generalizado para todas as \u00e1reas do setor. Os principais pontos de aten\u00e7\u00e3o concentram-se nos riscos ligados \u00e0 circula\u00e7\u00e3o presencial de consumidores, j\u00e1 que o varejo f\u00edsico depende diretamente de fluxo, deslocamento e presen\u00e7a de clientes nas \u00e1reas comerciais.\r\n\r\nA an\u00e1lise tamb\u00e9m sugere vulnerabilidade estrutural relativamente elevada dentro do varejo presencial de bens e servi\u00e7os em cidades de Minas Gerais com at\u00e9 25 mil habitantes ao fen\u00f4meno de estudo, indicando capacidade limitada de adapta\u00e7\u00e3o diante de per\u00edodos prolongados de instabilidade clim\u00e1tica ou redu\u00e7\u00e3o de circula\u00e7\u00e3o. Riscos relacionados \u00e0 concorr\u00eancia digital, localiza\u00e7\u00e3o, fornecedores, infla\u00e7\u00e3o e sazonalidade apresentaram mecanismos plaus\u00edveis de manifesta\u00e7\u00e3o, por\u00e9m com intensidade mais limitada ou dependente de fatores intermedi\u00e1rios. No geral, o resultado aponta maior necessidade de prepara\u00e7\u00e3o operacional e fortalecimento de estrat\u00e9gias comerciais voltadas \u00e0 manuten\u00e7\u00e3o do fluxo de vendas durante per\u00edodos de menor movimenta\u00e7\u00e3o presencial.<\/div><\/div><\/div><script>\nfunction advRadarToggle(uid) {\n  var card = document.getElementById(uid);\n  if (!card) return;\n  var body = card.querySelector(\".adv-radar-body\");\n  var open = card.classList.toggle(\"open\");\n  body.style.display = open ? \"block\" : \"none\";\n}\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-172","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/adversos.com.br\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/172","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/adversos.com.br\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/adversos.com.br\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adversos.com.br\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adversos.com.br\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=172"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/adversos.com.br\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/172\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/adversos.com.br\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=172"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}